'B' 2012 Watch: January 2010

Back in November, I briefly posted thoughts on the 2012 race. This is a quick update of that.

I decided to limit myself to candidates that are at least semi-likely to run. Thus, I will only be considering candidates with at least 3% on intrade. With that said:

Qualifying candidates:

Mitt Romney (24.9)
Sarah Palin (18.0)
Tim Pawlenty (10.0)
John Thune (9.5)
Mike Huckabee (7.8)
Rick Perry (4.0)
Ron Paul (3.6)
Jeb Bush (3.0)

Top 5 Preferred Candidates for GOP Nomination

Again, these are just out of the qualifying candidates. I have also divided support for the top 5 from a pie of one to further explain my preferences.

1. John Thune (.40)
   
2. Mitt Romney (.30)
   
3. Tim Pawlenty (.25)
   
4. Jeb Bush (.04)
   
5. Rick Perry (.01)

I am ditching the "Dist...Vote" thing I did last time. It had no mathematical basis. Instead here is a "Power Rankings" type thing of (B's preference * intrade strength). Max. is 100 if a candidate is virtually guaranteed the nomination and also receives 100% of my support:

1. Romney (7.47)
2. Thune (3.8)
3. Pawlenty (2.5)
4. Bush (.12)
5. Perry (.04)

Likelihood of Final Vote

1. GOP (.82) (+.02)
2. Dem (.18) (-.02) 

Approval of President Obama (1-10/Binary): 3/Nay (no change)